亲爱的安迪

1997年5月5日–我最喜欢的贵金属分析师之一是安迪·史密斯（Andy Smith），他在伦敦为瑞士联合银行工作。他的报告始终是我阅读的一种享受。对它们进行了很好的研究，并加载了许多图表，这些图表提供了对贵金属的独特见解。好像那不是’足够，他们也很机智和娱乐。

那里’s something in Andy’s给所有人的报告，可惜公牛除外。近年来，他一直是伦敦坚定的空头之一，我可能会补充说，他的价格预测准确无误，甚至偶尔会召集正确的涨势。这种出色的记录是我关注他在说什么的原因之一（我们在电话中讲话和/或不时开会，在这些偶然的会议之间，我仍然可以保持他的思想之上，因为他是在主要财经报纸上经常引用）。

令我沮丧的是，但我想不到的使安迪感到惊讶’关于华夏棋牌游戏的最新消息令人看跌。简而言之，欧洲更多的中央银行陷入困境将继续在市场上构成重压。在他看来“中央银行正在从快乐的持有者变成巨大的生产者”金子的。他为贵金属画出一幅黯淡的图画。我希望他错了。

Only time will tell of course whether 金 will stay in the doldrums. And only time will tell whether 中央银行 will remain the force they have been in the 金 market. These two non-controversial observations about the future are purposefully chosen by me they imply that 金 does have a future 和 that lower prices are not an inevitable outcome. 那里 is in my view another side to the precious metal coin, 和 it is bullish. So in the recognition that it always takes a buyer 和 卖方进行市场交易，我将以下公开信发送给Andy。

亲爱的安迪，

您的最新报告， “Central Bank 金: The Picture of Less Reserve”, got me thinking. It had to. Your report was at first a bit scary when I read it, so I needed to rethink some of my basic premises about 金.

While doing so I realized that in all of our discussions about 金 over the years, we have rarely touched upon the ‘big picture’，而是专注于更短期的定位。因此，我决定写这封信，为您提供这方面的一些想法。

I am happy to say that after some serious reflection 和 pondering, I do not think 中央银行 are the force that you reckon them to be. Nor is the outcome for 金 so bearish.

这里’s why. It is true that central bank 金 reserves are a legacy of the past, 和 as a consequence, at first blush it may therefore appear that these reserves do not reflect “理性的投资组合选择” on the part of central bankers. After all, as you observe, 金 no longer has a 交易角色 它不再用作货币或交换媒介。

然而，尽管如此，华夏棋牌游戏仍然具有货币作用。它是用于计算商品和服务价格的有用会计单位，即使它不再可以用作购买相同商品和服务的交易媒介。这一观察结果突出了有关金的稳定性的基本结论的重要性。’Roy Jastram在他的书中的购买力， “The 金en Constant”. 金 does retain its purchasing power over long periods of time.

As noted by Henry 桑顿 in 1802: “We assume that the currency which is in all our hands is fixed, 和 that the price of 金条 moves; whereas in truth, it is the currency of each nation that moves, 和 it is 金条 which 是更固定的。” 桑顿’今天的观察仍然正确。

首先，华夏棋牌游戏重量单位通常不用于经济计算。政府在学校开设的课程要求我们思考美元，马克或法郎，而不是克或盎司的华夏棋牌游戏。因此，人们普遍认为，如今的美元数量通常比1960年多约十倍’购买相同的商品或服务。一桶原油是20美元，而不是1.80美元；福特野马敞篷车售价为27,500美元，而不是2,550美元；一盎司华夏棋牌游戏是350美元，而不是35美元；以及不计其数的可销售商品和服务。当从购买力而不是所谓的价格来看华夏棋牌游戏时，很明显为什么桑顿得出这样的结论：“bullion…is the more fixed.”

Second, 金 has this stability of purchasing power because the cumulative supply of 金 tends to grow by approximately the same rate as the world’的人口与财富创造

金’s supply 和 demand therefore tend to remain in balance over the years. Consequently, goods 和 services today cost more or less the same in 金 terms as they did in times past. In short, 金 is money, even though we do not use it today as currency. I might add that this state of affairs is itself not a 理性的投资组合选择 by the marketplace. The marketplace did not willingly abandon 金 currency governments forced the currency out of circulation. However, no government has the power to force the marketplace to abandon 金 as money.

原因当然是没有任何政府可以强迫任何人思考和采取行动反对该人’s own best interests. And for thousands of years people have intuitively understood 金’s usefulness. They still do, which is why 金 still has value 和 a relatively stable purchasing power.

正如最近几十年的经验清楚表明的那样，请尽可能尝试 用他们所有的宣传和一厢情愿的力量 governments cannot demonetize 金; after all, it still has the same purchasing power that it did when governments declared war on 金 in the 1960’s。政府只能 ‘de-currencyize’ 金, a basic observation that unfortunately is lost in today’在公众对中央政府的货币发行有完全盲目的信仰的环境中。

中央银行当然喜欢这种方式。温顺的公众使央行行长更容易维持这样一种幻想，即他们的法定货币管理得当且具有长期效用。中央银行的目的是将货币贬值率保持在足够低的水平，以免引起一般性的警觉。使用Bi斯麦’类似于试图找到正确的税率，’就像试图从鹅身上抽出适当数量的羽毛而不会发出嘎嘎叫声。