1997年6月9日– Anyone who has been around 金 for any length of time knows that this precious metal has the uncanny ability to lead events. For example, 金 was in a well established downtrend in the months leading up to the Gulf War. However, sensing trouble on the horizon, 金 hit bottom two months before the war began. 金 had already risen nearly 10% from its low point by the time Saddam Hussein’s tanks rolled across the Kuwaiti border. 金 continued to plow higher as the Iraqi’已定居到新的语言环境。
金’预测未来事件的能力并不难理解。萨达姆·侯赛因一直在苦苦哀求伊拉克’s claim to Kuwaiti territory for a considerable time before he ordered his troops to attack Kuwait. As his threats became more urgent, people in the region and elsewhere sensed from this clamor that there may be trouble that could threaten Western 油 supplies, so they responded. They bought 金, and the cumulative effect of their action caused 金 to reverse course to the upside well before the war broke out. The rise in 金 was a leading event.
There are many examples of 金’s forecasting ability. For example, 金 began its major downtrend in January 1980, long before the majority of the population recognized or were willing to accept that the 通货膨胀ary outlook for the Dollar was about to change course. By the time the double-digit 通货膨胀 rates of that period had subsided, 金 was well below its highest price and firmly established within the major downtrend that carried it to the 1985 low of $282 per ounce.
Given this exceptional forecasting record, 金 must be looked at seriously whenever it reverses course. Any change is probably signaling some major event, not yet widely recognized but sufficiently menacing to cause enough people to act, taking steps favorable to them with the most fundamental money, namely, 金.
Therefore, the following chart cannot be ignored. Is 金 signaling a severe bout of deflation?
This chart presents the 金 price and the Commodity Research Bureau Index, which is an amalgam of 17 different and very important commodities. Rising commodity prices are an indication of 通货膨胀. Conversely, falling commodity prices are an indication of disinflation, or if the downtrend is severe and protracted enough, perhaps even deflation. For this reason, I watch the CRB指数very closely. But I watch 金 even more. The reason is that the 金 price leads the CRB Index. Look at their pattern on the accompanying chart.
黄金在1982年开始了新的上升趋势。当年晚些时候，CRB指数逆转了走势，紧随其后的是黄金’的领导。然后，黄金在1983年开始走低，几个月后CRB下跌。黄金在CRB之前大约1985年触底。然后，黄金在1987年（CRB之前的几个月）再创新高，之后都处于多年下降趋势中。 1990年初的照片’s不太清楚，但是历史关系仍然成立。金’在CRB表现出触底迹象之前，跌势就开始失去动力。金’1993年的一次大型集会带动了CRB的集会，直到1994年，集会一直持续走高。但是后来情况发生了变化，正是这种变化迫使我提出 whether 金 is still leading.
Look at what has happened to the 金/CRB relationship over the past few years. The CRB has kept climbing, but 金’s advance stalled in 1994 and 1995 and then abruptly reversed course to the downside last year. Therefore, is 金 still leading the CRB? If 金 is leading, does a deflationary spiral loom on the horizon?
没有，我不’t think so. 没有twithstanding their clear 历史关系, 金 is no longer leading – the CRB is. For the past year or so, 金 has been going its own way for reasons unique to it. 金 has been responding to two factors affecting its supply –矿业公司的远期抛售和中央银行的虚假报道。直到最近几年这两个供应因素才成为问题，但现在它们变得如此重要，以至于历史关系 of the 金 price and the CRB指数has changed as a result.
The commodities comprising the CRB are not affected by the unique supply factors impacting the 金 price. There are no 中央银行 dishoarding soybeans. 没有 油 company is forward selling today crude 油 they hope to produce in 2005. Therefore, the CRB指数– and not the 金 price –讲述了当今全球正在进行的货币通货膨胀的真实故事。
自1992年以来，美联储和世界上大多数其他中央银行一直在增加货币供应。如果创建太多美元，则会导致通货膨胀。 1970年’s的通胀率为两位数，因为M3的增长率为两位数。我们在1980年出现通货膨胀’s and early 1990’因为货币增长正在放缓。实际上，在1992年的短时间内，由于美元库存同比下降，出现了通货紧缩。
从那以后，通货紧缩一直是 操作方式 美联储自1992年以来，M3一直在不断扩展。中央银行采取的紧缩行动首先出现；随后出现更高的价格（即通货膨胀）。
This debasement of the Dollar means that each Dollar over time is purchasing less and less. And this reflation by the Federal Reserve means that there is a lot of 通货膨胀ary pressure in the pipeline. Commodity prices are rising. Wage rates are rising. And so should the 金 price be rising too.
但是我们知道为什么’t. 金 has had to contend with two unusual factors that resulted in abnormal increases in its supply. As a result, 金 today is $345, instead of the $475-$500 range that I believe it would now be if its 历史关系 with the CRB指数were still prevailing.
This observation is not a reason to avoid 金, Rather, it is a reason to buy it. 金 is very undervalued, and eventually, this undervaluation will disappear. Why?
Because all 市场 eventually move from undervaluation to full valuation, and then to overvaluation. 金 is no different in this regard from the 股市 or any other market. It is only a matter of time before any market begins fulfilling its potential, and that time may be near for 金.
The French election may prove to be a turning point for the 金 market. Though I have been a Euro-skeptic all along and never thought monetary union in Europe was going to happen, most investors seemed to accept the Euro as a 既成事实.
因此，法国大选和德国政府的辛勤努力‘cook the books’ by revaluing their 金 reserve may be the wake-up call many people needed about the slim prospects for monetary union. These two events make it clear that monetary union is further away now then it ever was.
因此，欧洲 ’s politicians must think twice before playing fast and loose in the rush to dump their national currency for an untested Euro. And the various European 中央银行 therefore no longer have any incentive to dishoard their 金 reserve. Take this factor of supply out of the market, and the 金 price will respond. And my expectation is that it will respond quickly –更高的价格正在上涨。
The 金 price is about to catch-up with the 通货膨胀ary message of the CRB Index. And who knows? Maybe 金 will once again start leading, signaling to all those willing to heed its message that the reflation of recent years is inevitably leading to a resurgence in 通货膨胀.