1998年3月9日–沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）令人震惊地宣布，他的投资公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）购买了1.3亿盎司，点燃了贵重金属鞭炮的保险丝 of Silver. Initially Silver soared on the announcement, and 金 bounced higher in sympathy.
This precious metals update provides several reasons why the outlook remains positive for 金 and Silver, even though their price has been lackluster over the past few weeks. Let’s look first at the cost of borrowing 金.
Short-term interest rates for 金 recently jumped to more than 3% from the low 2% range they had been holding. It is a remarkable jump because of its size, and because it occurred so suddenly in just a couple of days. However, the real story is not so much this latest fluctuation, but the fact that 金’首先，利率很高。
If you look back at the history of 金, its short-term interest rate (1 month up to 3 months) has normally ranged from .25% up to .75%. Rarely would it ever get as high a 1%, but it has ranged well above that level for two years now. The bears say that this higher rate is one result proving that 金’的角色已经改变，不再是金钱。我不同意。
金’s monetary role hasn’t changed one whit. What has changed is market perceptions about 金’s usefulness. Because confidence reigns supreme, 金 is given little value. While it remains money of substance (a tangible asset), this characteristic is not highly valued in the present climate because everyone’s credit worthiness is accepted without question. Therefore, as confidence in the monetary and banking system rises, national 货币 (all of which are based on credit) are valued increasingly higher, which is another way of saying that the 金 price has been falling. But I think it has fallen way too far, which explains why 金’的利率太高了。
There is too little 金 available at current prices to enable its interest rate to be anywhere near historical levels. 换句话说，贵金属短缺。金’将再次达到正常的利率，但前提是金价回到正常的价格水平，即每盎司400美元以上。较高的价格将增加华夏棋牌游戏的可用供应量，这将导致更多的华夏棋牌游戏借贷和较低的利率。但是，在此之前，我们知道华夏棋牌游戏被低估了。实际上，它应该继续积累，因为它代表着非凡的价值，尽管人们对中央银行的不安全行为感到担忧和费力。这一直是我的争论–这些信件在去年的最后几个月中得到了很好的说明–1997年中央银行兑现了约500-800吨华夏棋牌游戏。华夏棋牌游戏的重量约占年产量的25％-40％，因此市场需要吸收大量华夏棋牌游戏。
这种羞辱的存在很重要。我相信去年’s drop in the 金 price can be explained by this dishoarding. My conclusion has been that the low 金 price is an aberration resulting from one-off central bank transactions which are now complete, and that higher prices will return this year as the market recognizes that further European dishoarding is unlikely.
Earlier this year, a 500 tonne dishoarding estimate was reported by 金 Fields Mineral Services and others for 1997, thus confirming from their own independent sources my estimate of the weight of central bank dishoarding. The likely culprits in my view are the Dutch and/or the Belgians, as the central bank of both these countries has dishoarded 金 in the past, and both banks have made plain their view that they hold too large a weight of 金 when its value is viewed as a percentage of their country’的外汇储备总额。
我原本希望这些银行在1月或2月发布有关去年的公告’s dishoarding, but none was made. In fact, recently the Belgians even suggested that they had dishoarded none of their remaining 金 reserve, but the announcement was vague enough that it should not carry too much weight, particularly because they have made similar announcements in years past when they had in fact actually dishoarded 金.
In any case, the question remains. Was the drop in the 金 price last year due to central bank dishoarding?
Recently, some evidence has emerged confirming that a central bank did dishoard 金 last year. 金 borrowing rates (Gold’s so-called ‘lease rate’）在过去的几周中跃升了很多。
This jump in cost to borrow 金 was not the result of new borrowing. Rather, it was the result of a drop in the supply of 金 available for lending. It appears that one central bank (I suspect the Dutch) sold 金 last year on a forward basis for delivery in March of this year. While they retained the 金 during the period of the forward sales, they continued to lend it into the market. But those forward sales are now coming due.
Consequently, they had to withdraw their 金 from the lending market in preparation for its delivery into their forward sales.
If this course of events is accurate, then we can expect an announcement from this central bank in April or early May about their dishoarding. This announcement may coincide with the statement by the proposed European central bank advising what its 金 policy will be once this new central bank is formed and operational. And here there is also reason to be positive.
Germany, France and Italy together own 73.6% of the total 金 reserve of the eleven members of the proposed European monetary union. Recently it has become increasingly clear that these three countries want and expect 金 to play an important role within the new European central bank. France in particular has been outspoken in this regard through its central bank governor Jean-Claude Trichet, who himself is one of two potential candidates being considered to assume the responsibilities of Chief Executive of the new European central bank.
3月14日，当伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）发布年度报告时，巴菲特先生无疑将对他的白银交易有更多的看法，该报告将在当天发布在其网站上。 www.berkshirehathaway.com。同时，我们只能推测白银市场正在发生什么，但是最近的下跌仍然与巴菲特先生有关’s actions. Here’s how.
Both 金 and Silver remain good value, and both should continue to be accumulated by long-term investors seeking exceptional value.
Moreover, this accumulation will now be taking place in an environment turning increasingly favorable toward the precious metals. Much of the uncertainty surrounding the European central bank policy on 金 is ending.
随着市场开始认识到亲金观点的重要性，‘big-three’ 中央银行, higher 金 prices will likely be the result. And Silver will also move higher in that environment. I still expect 1998 will prove to be a good year for the precious metals.