温度计比正常高

1997年10月20日– Many aspects of 金 are misunderstood by many people, and this lack of knowledge leads to numerous misconceptions about 金, its usefulness, and in particular, its ongoing role as money. However, there is one aspect of 金 that is nearly totally misunderstood – interest rates.

如果您在100个人中问99，他们会说‘黄金不赚钱’. They of course are stating that they are unable to earn any interest on the 金 they own, but they are totally wrong. 金 确实支付利息，就像美元，法郎，英镑或任何其他货币支付利息一样，也就是说，是否将其借给其他人。

If you lend your Dollars to a bank by putting them into a time deposit, you earn some interest on your deposit. Similarly, if you lend your 金 to a bullion bank, you also earn a rate of interest. There is, however, a catch. The minimum deposit in this game is generally 10,000 ounces, the present Dollar equivalent of which is about $3¼ million.

Thus, few people recognize that 金 ‘does pay interest’因为这个游戏显然是针对大玩家的。这也是一个封闭的俱乐部– there are less than one hundred bullion banks around the world that accept 金 deposits. However, it is amazing to see how many people perpetuate the false notion that 金 does not pay interest, even within the 金 industry where people should know better.

在一个行业赞助的论坛上，我最近听到了一家知名的大型金矿公司的董事长，该公司的远期交易对冲未来的生产，使房间里挤满了其他矿业公司的分析师，投资组合经理和高管。黄金无息的有害声明。我对声明是正确的，而且没有受到质疑也感到怀疑。如果黄金不支付利息，他是否表示他的公司从黄金银行获得了完成远期销售所需的无息贷款？ 没有, of course not. His company is paying interest on that borrowed 金, just like it is paying interest on the Dollars being borrowed.

我想更全面地探讨利率这个概念。原因是利率的作用很像温度计。货币水平’利率可以告诉您有关患者的很多信息。

利率是正常的。此外，通过研究货币可以学到很多东西 ’的利率。您是否曾经停下来考虑过，为什么意大利的利率高于美国的利率，而美国的利率高于瑞士的利率？还是为什么欧洲各央行如此关注 利率趋同 是建立欧洲货币联盟的先决条件？

利率基本上反映了风险。增加风险，利率上升。例如，为回答上述问题，里拉的利率高于美元的利率，因为 里拉的风险更大。我们都知道意大利人倾向于货币升值，较高的利率反映了这种风险。同样，市场相信（正如我所做的那样），美联储比瑞士国家银行更可能使美元升值。

因此，持有美元的风险更大，因此美元利率高于瑞士法郎利率。

So what money has the lowest rate of interest? It is 金 because it has the least amount of risk. 金 cannot be inflated away by some central bank, so the varying 通货膨胀 premium in the interest rate of national 货币 is absent from 金. However, all is not well with 金’s interest rate at the moment. 金 interest rates are abnormally high.

Throughout history 金’s interest rate is well documented. 没有rmally it is less than 1%, meaning that a triple-A credit risk could borrow 金 at less than 1% per annum (in fact, it is often less than ½%). In recent weeks, however, 金’的税率一直稳定地保持在3％以上，并且在今年的大部分时间里一直在2％以上。这里有些事儿了。

The nature of 金 has not changed – 中央银行 cannot inflate it. So why is 金’s interest rate so high? Given the basic premise that interest rates reflect risk, what risk has increased for 金 to cause these higher rates? Why is the thermometer way above normal?

金 has another kind of risk now generally forgotten because it is not a risk normally seen in national 货币 – it is 交货风险。黄金交易者可能会不时被要求交付黄金以平仓空头头寸。与可以通过笔触来创建以兑现其本国货币空头头寸的承诺而产生的本国货币相反，不能将黄金视为‘delivered’如果该未完成合同的对手方要求实物黄金，则通过记账入账。交付黄金–不只是承诺付钱– is required.

What does it all mean? Here is the conclusion by one veteran and very astute participant in the 金 market, Murray Pollitt of Pollitt &多伦多经纪公司： “我们认为，危机正在发展。衍生品交易商，大宗商品和对冲基金，许多矿业公司以及上帝知道，从技术，思想和情感的角度来看，还有谁卖空了数亿盎司的黄金和白银。与流行的神话相反，没有最后的贷款人（或供应商）。”

The point is very simple. In contrast to 货币, 金 cannot be created out of thin air. Any person who is short 金 (and Silver too) may be called on to deliver the metal. Mining companies can deliver from production, but commodity and hedge funds do not have that option.

金’s interest rate is running at a very high 3¼% because there is a shortage of physical metal, so 金 borrowers may not be able to deliver 金 when the time comes for them to meet their commitment to return the 金 being borrowed. Anyone lending 金 today must understand that the abnormally high interest rate they are earning is a direct consequence of the higher risk of delivery/repayment they are accepting.

To avoid defaulting on their commitment to deliver, the speculative players must buy back their shorts in the market. A higher 金 price, perhaps with a crisis, will be the natural result of any rush to acquire the metal needed to deliver to cover shorts. A crisis will occur if the rush for metal gains momentum.

The reason is that rapidly rising 金 prices will threaten the solvency of many commodity pools and hedge funds that are short 金.

随着黄金价格的上涨，将要求空头增加更多的保证金以证明其财务资源（即其交割能力）和/或可能实际上被迫兑空头头寸交割黄金。此举意味着空头将买入黄金，这进一步推高了黄金价格，进而形成了更多追加保证金和增加买入的恶性循环。最近有这种疯狂的例子。

考虑一下去年住友积corner的铜价时发生的铜价变化’s rogue trader began to unravel. The price of copper plummeted in a matter of days. A similarly violent move in 金 is likely, but in the reverse – 金 will soar.

The reason for this different result is that there was a surplus of copper that was being masked by Sumitomo to make it appear as a shortage. With 金, the opposite is occurring.

There is a shortage of 金 being made to appear as if it were a surplus. We know there is a shortage because 金’利率远高于正常水平。

Though market prices and market conditions can stay out-of-whack for a time, in the end normal conditions will always prevail. Therefore, we know that 金’的利率将再次跌至1％以下的历史正常水平。

但是我们也知道，要使利率恢复正常，方程式的另一边也必须恢复正常– the 金 price must rise.

没有 one knows whether it will take $380 or $500 or some higher price in order to prod holders of the metal to put sufficient 金 back into the market (i.e., enticing them to hold Dollars instead of 金) which will reduce the current shortage of metal But we do know that the current low 金 price is every bit as much an anomaly and extraordinary occurrence as 金’很高的利率。